Why Jack Della Maddalena could beat Islam Makhachev at UFC 322

Fact box

• Who: Jack Della Maddalena (c) vs Islam Makhachev
• What: UFC Welterweight Championship — UFC 322 main event
• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
• When (broadcast windows): Early Prelims 6:00 p.m. ET, Prelims 8:00 p.m. ET, Main Card 10:00 p.m. ET (Estonia time: Sun, Nov 16 — 01:00 / 03:00 / 05:00 EET)

The core case: damage over control

The scoring economy of modern MMA increasingly rewards damaging, visible offense. That’s the heart of the argument for Jack Della Maddalena. If he can force more time in open space and make every clinch or level change cost Islam Makhachev something — a clean body shot, a slicing elbow on the break, a jab that disrupts balance — the champion can bank the kind of moments that sway judges across a five-rounder. Unlike volume-only boxers, Jack’s pocket work is compact and heavy; even single shots change rounds. His path doesn’t demand shutting out takedowns. It demands punishing attempts, minimizing ride time, and cashing in on restarts.

Jab lanes, angle exits, and body work

Jack’s offense is built on small, repetitive wins. He occupies the center with a ramrod jab, then tilts his stance to create two lanes: the outside angle for the right hand and the inside slip for the left hook to the body. Against a southpaw wrestler, that jab is more than point-scoring; it’s traffic control. It sets the range where entries must come from farther away, and it forces Islam to show his level changes earlier. Once Jack sees the level cue, he can meet it with inside frames (forearm across the collarbone), short uppercuts, or the shovel hook that has become a signature punch.

• Jab as early warning: touch, retract, re-probe to freeze level changes.
• Angle exit right: outside step after the jab to open the straight right to head or chest.
• Body investment: left hook and straight to the midsection to tax the shot and slow scrambles.

Even if takedowns occur, early and frequent body work pays off in rounds 3–5. Islam’s entries get more readable when he must respect the body shot on every reentry, making sprawls or hip-heists more likely to succeed late.

Practical anti-wrestling: frames, overhooks, and the “first get-up”

“Stop the takedown” is a cliché; “win the sequence” is the real job. Della Maddalena’s toolkit for that job is straightforward and repeatable:

1. First-layer defense: meet the shot with a short sprawl and strong inside frames. The frame denies head position and turns doubles into single legs at awkward angles.
2. Overhook and head position: if Islam arrives in over/under on the fence, Jack’s priority is overhook + head to temple. That posture beats body-lock posture, buys him the space to insert a knee shield, and sets up the inside elbow.
3. First get-up emphasis: if grounded, build to a hip immediately. Elbow-knee escape to the fence, then stand with a whizzer or switch to the Peterson sit if Islam moves to the back bodylock. No hanging out in guard; no long leg-wrestling detours.

This is defensive minimalism: limit positions where Islam’s A-game snowballs (half guard shoulder pressure, cross-wrist rides), and instead force frequent “dirty” restarts where Jack’s short shots land first.

Clinch math that favors Jack

Islam is superb at using the fence as a third man. Jack doesn’t need to out-wrestle that phase; he needs to beat the math of it. The answer is to make every clinch touch cost. Inside elbows on the pummel. Short right hands on the break that land as Islam exits head outside. Knees to the gut when Islam’s hips square to re-connect hands. These aren’t home-run shots — they are tax stamps that accumulate while denying long stretches of control time.

Judges notice these “tells”: the head snap from a compact elbow, a visible body reaction to a knee, the stumble off a stiff frame. Sprinkle two or three of those in a round with otherwise even clinch exchanges and you tilt close rounds toward the champion.

Punishing the shot: the uppercut, the knee, and the posting hook

Jack’s most dangerous punches against level change are the tight uppercut and the shovel hook, both thrown from a compact guard. Because he doesn’t load them with big tells, they arrive as Islam changes levels or exits a failed chain. Another quiet weapon: the posting lead hook that lands as Islam’s head pops up on a re-shot. Add a measured rear knee down the middle if Islam’s entries come from too far out, and the deterrent effect compounds. The goal isn’t reckless “knee the shot” gambles; it’s to make Islam pay modestly but consistently for trying, so the next attempt shows fatigue and hesitation.

Pace and optics: turning rounds into Jack’s kind of fight

Della Maddalena wins when the optics are undeniable: clean, hard connects; obvious reactions; crisp counters. His team can shepherd those optics by scripting two pace changes each round. Early, jack up jab volume and body work to set traps. Late, spike output in the final 60–90 seconds with combinations on breaks and long 1–2s that capitalize on Islam’s level feints. That late-round surge is crucial in a fight where control time could ebb and flow. The champion doesn’t need 25 minutes of dominance; he needs to own the moments that count most in the judges’ memory.

Solving the southpaw wrestler

Against southpaws, Jack’s best entries trace a familiar pattern: outside-foot lead to line up the right hand, then finish with the left hook to the liver as the opponent circles. Islam complicates that with shot threats, but there’s a flip side: the southpaw body is open for the straight right to the solar plexus and the outside low kick. Two or three well-placed body shots in each of the first two rounds change how fast Islam wants to chain wrestle, and how often he risks inside trips that expose him to elbows.

A five-round gameplan that travels

• Round 1: Jab early, force tells. Check the speed of entries with short uppercuts. Invest in body shots off angle exits.
• Round 2: Make clinches expensive: elbows on pummels, knees on re-connects. Prioritize instant stand-ups; no guard play.
• Round 3: Kick the calf and body from long range to slow level changes. Keep the center — do not accept long fence sequences.
• Round 4: Momentum round. After any break, throw the 1–3 or 3–2 immediately. Double-up hooks to body/head as Islam’s pace dips.
• Round 5: Seal it with late-round surges. Two strong 30-second bursts with clean scoring shots can out-weigh short control spells.

Risks for Jack — and how he mitigates them

• Back exposure on stand-ups: when Islam rides the back with a body lock, Jack must prioritize two-on-one wrist control before turning. The wrong turn gifts hooks.
• Head position losses on the fence: if Islam gets under the chin and staples hips to cage, damage evaporates and minutes bleed. Jack needs urgent head-to-temple posture and overhook pummels.
• Over-pursuing counters: loading up can feed reactive shots. Keep counters short, then exit on angles rather than stepping straight in.

Numbers that back the case

Jack’s offensive striking pace has consistently been among the welterweight elite, with accuracy that reflects clean shot selection rather than wild exchanges. Islam’s striking is efficient and smart, but more conservative by design. That contrast matters. If the fight’s share of stand-up time is even moderate, Jack’s connect numbers can pull ahead quickly — especially if he lands body work that erodes chain-wrestling speed in the championship rounds. The question isn’t whether Islam can score takedowns; it’s whether he can convert them into meaningful damage or long control stretches before restarts. Jack’s plan is built to say “no.”

Three keys to victory for Jack Della Maddalena

1. Tax the entry, tax the exit: elbows and short hooks in the clinch, stiff jabs on the break. Every attempt should cost Islam a clean shot.
2. First get-up always: no acceptance of bottom. Build to a hip, wall-walk, and make Islam re-shoot into strikes.
3. Body work early, optics late: invest downstairs for rounds 1–2; spike visible, clean connects in each round’s final minute.

State of play: why Jack’s style can flip the script

Islam Makhachev’s game is calibrated to remove chaos. Jack Della Maddalena thrives on injecting it in precise doses — not brawls, but relentless, targeted damage that judges can’t ignore. If he executes the discipline of immediate stand-ups, clinch taxes, and jab-led angles, the champion can keep this fight in the kind of chaos he controls. Over 25 minutes, that may be enough to repel the wrestling tide and keep the belt in Perth.

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