The Chaos of UFC 324: Interim Gold on the Line
On January 24, 2026, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will host a collision of timelines. In the co-main event of UFC 324, the perennial violence king Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje faces the surging superstar Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett for the Interim Lightweight Championship. This isn’t just a fight; it is a referendum on the future of the 155-pound division.
Gaethje, fresh off his dominant decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313, looks to secure undisputed status once and for all. Standing in his way is Pimblett, who silenced critics with a shocking third-round TKO of Michael Chandler at UFC 314 last April. But do the numbers back the hype? We break down the metrics, the styles, and the X-factors to determine who leaves Sin City with the belt.
Striking Metrics: The Car Crash vs. The Unorthodox
To understand this matchup, you must first respect the sheer volume of violence Justin Gaethje brings to the octagon. According to official UFC statistics, Gaethje lands an absurd 7.35 significant strikes per minute (SLpM). This output is among the highest in lightweight history. His game is built on leg kicks that compromise mobility and tight, looping hooks that find the target around the guard.
Conversely, Paddy Pimblett operates with a more chaotic, albeit looser, striking style. While his numbers have improved—rising to 5.19 SLpM following the Chandler fight—his defense remains a glaring liability. Pimblett absorbs 3.14 strikes per minute, but the visual data is more concerning: he tends to keep his chin high during exchanges. Against a power puncher like Gaethje, who boasts a knockdown ratio significantly higher than the division average, this technical flaw could be catastrophic.
Tactical Note: Gaethje’s leg kicks (landing at a 90% clip in open space) will likely target Pimblett’s lead leg early. If Paddy cannot check these kicks, his mobility—his greatest asset in scrambles—will be neutralized by the second round.
Grappling & Scrambles: The D1 All-American vs. The Submission Hunter
The narrative often paints Gaethje as a brawler, ignoring his pedigree as an NCAA Division I All-American wrestler. However, his defensive wrestling stats tell the real story. Gaethje holds a 75% takedown defense rate, rarely allowing opponents to flatten him out. He creates scrambles to get back to his feet, often exposing his back in the process—a habit that cost him against Charles Oliveira.
This is exactly where Paddy Pimblett excels. With a submission average of 1.7 per 15 minutes, Pimblett is a master of chaotic transitions. His victory over King Green at UFC 304 via triangle choke demonstrated his ability to snatch limbs in the heat of a brawl. If Gaethje attempts to roll out of a takedown or scramble frantically, Pimblett’s back-taking ability becomes the single biggest threat in the fight.
Key Grappling Stats
- Gaethje Takedown Defense: 75%
- Pimblett Submission Average: 1.7/15 min
- Pimblett Takedown Accuracy: ~29% (He relies on trips and reversals rather than shots)
The X-Factor: Durability and Damage
Both men have shown incredible durability, but of different kinds. Gaethje absorbs a staggering 7.50 significant strikes per minute. He is willing to take one to give one, a strategy that has led to Fight of the Year contenders but accumulates long-term damage. Pimblett, while younger in fight years, has been rocked in previous bouts (notably against Jared Gordon and Ferguson) before rallying.
The question for UFC 324 is simple: Can Pimblett’s chin hold up to the power that cracked Dustin Poirier and Rafael Fiziev? Or will Gaethje’s accumulation of wars finally catch up to him against a younger, faster grappler?
Official Prediction: Who Wins?
This fight rests on range management. If the fight stays at kickboxing range, Justin Gaethje’s technical brawling and leg kicks should dismantle Pimblett’s upright stance within three rounds. However, if Pimblett can force a clinch and drag the fight into “muddy waters” (unclean scrambles), his path to a Rear-Naked Choke is clear.
Verdict: We expect Gaethje to fight disciplined, chopping the legs early to eliminate Pimblett’s spring. Look for a Justin Gaethje victory via TKO in Round 3, catching Paddy with a left hook as the Brit attempts to close the distance.
UFC 324 FAQ
When is Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett?
The fight takes place on Saturday, January 24, 2026, as the co-main event of UFC 324.
Is this for the real lightweight title?
No, this bout is for the Interim Lightweight Championship. The winner will likely unify the belt against the undisputed champion later in 2026.
What are the betting odds?
Opening lines from major sportsbooks (via Sherdog) list Justin Gaethje as a moderate favorite (-165), with Paddy Pimblett as the underdog (+145).
Where can I watch the fight?
The main card will stream exclusively on ESPN+ PPV in the United States and on Viaplay or UFC Fight Pass in Estonia and Europe.
