Why Islam Makhachev could beat Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322

Fact box

• Who: Jack Della Maddalena (c) vs. Islam Makhachev
• What: UFC Welterweight Championship — UFC 322 main event
• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
• When (broadcast windows): Early Prelims 6:00 p.m. ET, Prelims 8:00 p.m. ET, Main Card 10:00 p.m. ET (Estonia time: Sun, Nov 16 — 01:00 / 03:00 / 05:00 EET)

The case for Islam Makhachev

The core argument is simple: against an elite boxer like Jack Della Maddalena, Islam Makhachev owns the best disruptive kit in MMA — clean entries, chain-wrestling awareness, and a top game that converts takedowns into control and submission threats. Where most wrestlers struggle after a stuffed shot, Makhachev’s next link in the chain (re-shoot, switch to the body lock, outside trip, mat return against the fence) keeps the exchange alive and wins minutes. That’s exactly the kind of anti-boxing rhythm that can de-fang Della Maddalena’s pocket counters.

Levels, links, and wall work: how the wrestling holds up

Jack’s best looks come from his tight, economical boxing and pocket defense. Islam’s answer isn’t “shoot from the logo”; it’s to shepherd him to the fence with southpaw jab feints, step-left threats, and knee-tap/inside-trip options from double underhooks. Once there, Makhachev excels at making the cage a third man: head position under Jack’s chin, shoulder pressure killing frames, and knee picks that force hands to the mat for “building the base” resets. Even if Della Maddalena stands, the mat return is immediate; Islam doesn’t let clean breaks happen without a clinch tax.

• First-layer entries: left-hand feint to level change; single-leg to high-crotch transitions.
• Second-layer chains: body lock to outside trip; knee tap after a defended double; back body lock mat return.
• Cage craft: wrist rides and handcuffing to force turtle, then spiral ride to open hooks.

Over five rounds, that loop matters more than any single takedown. Islam rarely needs long, damaging ground-and-pound stretches to win — he needs repeated, low-risk control cycles that blunt Jack’s rhythm and push the striking to late-clock situations where the threat of the shot dilutes counter opportunities.

Striking that travels — and why it matters here

“Why Islam Makhachev could beat Jack Della Maddalena” isn’t only about takedowns. Islam’s southpaw fundamentals — lead-hand hand-fighting, quick back-foot pulls, and a high-percentage left kick — complicate Jack’s jab-first reads. Because foes must respect the level change, Islam’s straight left lands cleaner than its pure speed would suggest, and his counter left hook off a feinted shot is a real deterrent. Add the calf and body kicks that punish the bladed boxing stance, and Jack is nudged out of prime pocket spots. Islam doesn’t need to win the stand-up outright; he just needs to make it inefficient for Jack.

Submission gravity: back takes, arm triangles, and ride time

The sequence most likely to tilt the fight is a fence return to a ride, into a back exposure when Jack sits to post. Makhachev’s wrist control and hook discipline are excellent, and his preferred finishes — arm triangle from half guard or top side after cross-wrist rides, or a body-triangle back ride into face-crank threats — force defenders to pick the lesser evil. Even without a tap, those sequences drain arms and slow pocket reactions, multiplying the value of each takedown.

Pace management and round-winning math

Della Maddalena’s volume can win him rounds in striking-centric fights, but Islam’s game shifts the scoring economy. One clean entry that produces 90–120 seconds of control plus two mat returns can overwhelm three minutes of relatively even stand-up. If Jack overcommits to keep Islam honest, the reactive shot is waiting; if he stays measured, he surrenders initiative and space. Makhachev’s team game-plans well for five-round math, and their adjustments — more clinch breaks to re-shoot, late-round ride time to “bank” control, and targeted body work — make the final ten minutes his best window.

What about Jack’s answers?

Jack’s hips are strong, and he’s improved at pummeling back to underhooks — plus he fires dangerous short shots in the clinch. The risk for Islam is hanging too long in over/under without head position, where Jack’s shovel hooks and elbows can do fast damage. But Islam typically avoids that by connecting hands quickly or breaking to re-enter on his terms. If Jack circles to open space, expect Islam to jab into southpaw outside foot position and threaten the double from the open side, where Jack’s lead leg is easier to collect.

Three actionable keys to victory for Islam

1. Win the fence first: Prioritize corral-and-climb sequences — jab feint, step-left cage cut, body-lock to trip. No naked long shots in center.
2. Tax every break: On stand-ups, keep a wrist. If Jack stands, return him immediately; if he turns, ride and threaten the choke to sap arms.
3. Kick the stance: Early calf and body kicks force a squarer base, softening level-change entries and slowing Jack’s jab resets.

Risks and how Islam mitigates them

• Pocket exchanges: Jack’s tight counters punish lazy entries. Islam must enter behind feints or clinch ties, not naked shots.
• Cut damage: If Jack opens cuts, optics matter. Islam should minimize mid-cage trades, prioritize mat returns, and avoid long ref separations.
• Cardio at 170: Added mass can sap scrambles. Islam’s solution is efficiency — shorter rides, more fence returns, fewer empty squeezes.

State of play: why the numbers favor Islam’s style

Zooming out, the stylistic matchup tilts toward control sequences over clean boxing rounds. Jack needs extended mid-cage time to land his best work; Islam’s game systematically steals that time, chunk by chunk. In a five-round title fight, that’s usually enough.

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